S&P 500 Average Annual Return by Decade
Measured as annualised total return with dividends reinvested, before inflation, the S&P 500 returned 17.55% a year in the 1980s, 18.21% in the 1990s, −0.95% in the 2000s, and 13.56% in the 2010s. The 2020s are running at 15.08% a year through 2025 so far. The spread — from a losing decade to over 18% a year — is the real lesson: the long-run average hides enormous variation. Figures are computed from Slickcharts annual total-return data.
The short answer
Here are the S&P 500's annualised returns for each recent decade, as total returns with dividends reinvested, before inflation:
- 1980s — 17.55% a year
- 1990s — 18.21% a year
- 2000s — −0.95% a year
- 2010s — 13.56% a year
- 2020s — 15.08% a year so far (2020–2025, still in progress)
Two strong decades, one negative decade, then another strong one. No single figure describes “normal” — which is exactly the point.
See what any rate would do: apply any of these figures to your own numbers in the investment growth calculator — it is your inputs, not a fixed historical average, that matter.
Returns by decade
Annualised (geometric) total return, dividends reinvested, nominal — not inflation-adjusted:
| Decade | Annualised return (nominal) | Character |
|---|---|---|
| 1980s | 17.55% | Strong bull market |
| 1990s | 18.21% | Best modern decade |
| 2000s | −0.95% | The “lost decade” |
| 2010s | 13.56% | Long recovery bull |
| 2020s* | 15.08% | In progress (2020–2025) |
*The 2020s are an incomplete decade; the figure is a partial, still-moving average through 2025 and will change as the decade finishes.
These are annualised figures — the single steady rate that would produce the decade's actual growth. That is different from simply averaging the ten yearly returns, which overstates the result; the gap between the two is explained in CAGR vs average annual return.
The lost decade
The 2000s stand out as the one negative decade in this set. Even with dividends reinvested, the S&P 500 returned −0.95% a year from 2000 through 2009 — the combined effect of the dot-com crash of 2000–2002 and the 2008 financial crisis. Someone who invested a lump sum at the start of 2000 was still slightly behind, in nominal terms, ten years later.
It is a useful counterweight to the strong decades on either side. The 1990s before it and the 2010s after it both returned well into double digits, yet the decade between them lost money. That is why a single decade — good or bad — is a poor guide to the next one.
The long-run average
Zoom out and the swings smooth considerably. Over the full Slickcharts series from 1926 to 2025, the S&P 500 returned 10.49% a year in nominal terms with dividends reinvested — a figure corroborated independently by officialdata.org, which puts the since-1926 return near 10.5% using Robert Shiller's data. After inflation, the long-run real return is roughly 6.5% to 7% a year.
But that 10% is an average across a century, not a rate you should expect in any given decade. As the table shows, actual decades have ranged from slightly negative to roughly 18% a year. The longer your horizon, the closer your own experience tends to land to the long-run figure — which is the core reason time in the market matters, as covered in how compound interest works.
How to read these numbers
- They are nominal. Inflation is not removed; real returns are lower, and were far lower in high-inflation decades.
- They include dividends. Reinvested dividends are a large part of the total — price-only returns are meaningfully lower.
- They are annualised, not averaged. This is the compound rate, which is the honest way to describe multi-year growth.
- They are backward-looking. Every figure here is history; none is a prediction.
What it means going forward
The most important thing this data shows is range, not a target. Decade returns have swung from −0.95% to 18.21% a year, and the 1990s and 2000s — back-to-back — were opposite extremes. Anyone claiming to know the next decade's figure is guessing.
Some major institutions currently forecast more modest returns over the coming decade than the recent past delivered, citing high valuations; others are more optimistic. Rather than pick a side, the practical move is to test your own plan against a range of rates — a cautious one and a hopeful one — in the investment growth calculator, and see how much the outcome depends on the assumption.
Sources & method
Each decade figure is the geometric annualised total return — the single steady rate matching the decade's actual compounded growth — computed from annual total returns (price change plus reinvested dividends), in nominal terms. The underlying annual data is from Slickcharts’ S&P 500 total returns by year (retrieved 31 July 2026), whose series runs back to 1926 and includes reinvested dividends. The long-run 1926–2025 figure of 10.49% is cross-checked against officialdata.org, which reports a similar since-1926 return built on Robert Shiller’s (Yale) historical dataset and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation figures. Small differences between published sources reflect exact start and end dates, dividend-timing assumptions and rounding. Data as of July 2026; the 2020s figure covers 2020–2025 and will change as the decade completes.
Frequently asked questions
The bottom line
By decade, the S&P 500's annualised total return ran 17.55% in the 1980s, 18.21% in the 1990s, −0.95% in the 2000s, and 13.56% in the 2010s, with the 2020s at 15.08% so far — all nominal, dividends reinvested, computed from Slickcharts annual data. The long-run average is 10.49% a year (1926–2025), but no single decade looks like the average. Use the range to stress-test your own plan rather than banking on any one figure repeating.
Model your own assumptions in the investment growth calculator, and see why annualised returns differ from simple averages in CAGR vs average annual return.
Disclaimer: This page is for general educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Historical returns are not a guarantee or prediction of future results; past performance does not indicate future performance. Figures are nominal total returns as of July 2026 and may be revised. Consider speaking with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.